Industrial Structure Optimization and Low-Carbon Transformation of Chinese Industry Based on the Forcing Mechanism of CO2 Emission Peak Target

The setting of a CO2 emission peak target (CEPT) will have profound impact on Chinese industry. An objective assessment this is great significance, both for understanding/applying the forcing mechanism CEPT, and promoting optimization China’s industrial structure low-carbon transformation industry at lower cost. Based analysis internal logic operation we employed STIRPAT model. This enabled us to predict path emissions, select values that would achieve CEPT with year 2030 as constraint condition, construct multi-objective multi-constraint input/output model, employ genetic algorithm solve explore results showed significant suppression effect high-carbon industries strong boosting industries. intensity positively correlated emissions peak. Under can realize transition optimization. in line sustainable development goals, but may risk causing excessive shrinkage basic industries—which should be prevented.